IAS Prelims Geography Q.2 – 2024 | Population Geography & Demographic Trends
Authentic Classroom Explanation by IAS Monk
📍 The Question
Consider the following countries:
- Italy
- Japan
- Nigeria
- South Korea
- South Africa
Which of the above countries are frequently mentioned in the media for their low birth rates, ageing population, or declining population?
(a) 1, 2 and 4
(b) 1, 3 and 5
(c) 2 and 4 only
(d) 3 and 5 only
Correct Answer: (a) 1, 2 and 4
🎯 Theme of the Question
Human Geography | Population Studies | Demographic Transition | Ageing Societies
This is a current-affairs–linked population geography question, testing awareness of global demographic crises, especially in developed and rapidly ageing societies.
🧠 Classroom Explanation
Let us examine each country calmly, one by one.
🔹 1. Italy ✅
Italy is frequently in news for:
- Rapidly ageing population
- Very low fertility rate
- Population projected to decline from:
- ~61 million (2017)
- to ~28 million by the end of the century
- Over 23% of population above 65 years (World Bank data)
✔️ Italy clearly fits the description
🔹 2. Japan ✅
Japan represents the most extreme demographic ageing case globally:
- World’s oldest population
- Highest proportion of people aged 100+
- Population projected to fall from:
- ~128 million (2017)
- to less than ~53 million by 2100
- Persistent ultra-low fertility rate
✔️ Japan is a textbook example
🔹 3. Nigeria ❌
Nigeria shows the opposite trend:
- High fertility rate
- Rapid population growth
- Projected to become the second most populous country in the world
- Expected population: ~791 million by 2100
- Large and expanding working-age population
✘ Nigeria is not associated with population decline or ageing
🔹 4. South Korea ✅
South Korea is facing a severe demographic crisis:
- Among the lowest fertility rates in the world
- Fertility rate projected to fall to ~0.68 in 2024
- Population of ~51 million projected to halve by end of century
- Ageing population poses risks to:
- Economic growth
- Pension systems
- Social welfare
✔️ South Korea clearly fits the description
🔹 5. South Africa ❌
- Population is not declining
- Fertility rates are higher than ageing societies
- Faces development challenges, but not a demographic ageing crisis
✘ Not frequently cited for declining population
📊 Final Assessment
| Country | Demographic Trend | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Italy | Ageing & declining | ✅ |
| Japan | Extreme ageing | ✅ |
| Nigeria | Rapid growth | ❌ |
| South Korea | Ultra-low fertility | ✅ |
| South Africa | Stable / growing | ❌ |
👉 Correct combination: 1, 2 and 4
❌ UPSC Elimination Logic
- UPSC contrasts:
- Ageing developed societies
- vs young, growing populations
- African countries (like Nigeria) often act as decoy options
- Media narratives matter as much as raw data
🧩 Memory Hook
“Japan ages, Italy slows, Korea shrinks — Africa grows.”
🧠 Prelims Strategy Insight
For population questions:
- Link fertility rate + ageing + media discourse
- Developed East Asia and Southern Europe are key hotspots
- Africa mostly represents population expansion, not decline
🧭 IAS Monk Whisper
Population is destiny — but only if you read the trend before the numbers arrive.