008. Tariffs & Tremors – India Amid the Trump’s Trade Tempest 🛡️
International Relations, Economy, GS2/GS3, Global Trade Shift
By IAS Monk / April 4, 2025
🔍 What Just Happened?
President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs in April 2025 — a global economic ripple has begun.
- Base 10% tariffs on all imports to the US
- China hit hardest with 54%
- India spared heavy losses, but caution remains
- Global markets react with volatility; fears of recession intensify
📦 Impact on India
Despite the tremors, India finds partial shelter.
| Sector | Tariff Impact |
|---|---|
| Pharma | Exempted ✅ ($8B exports safe) |
| Seafood & Rice | Demand stays robust – rivals like Vietnam hit harder |
| Telecom & Textiles | 7–19% lower tariffs vs China/Vietnam |
| Chemicals & Jewellery | Vulnerable – up to 25% tariffs likely |
Mission 500 – the India–US trade target of $500B stays in sight.
🌍 Global Trade Fallout
Some nations hit far harder than others.
- Madagascar & Congo: Tariffs > 40%
- Trade lifelines disrupted in poorest economies
- Markets tumble: Investors rush to gold
📉 Economic Forecasts
| Analyst | Projection |
|---|---|
| Citi Research | $7B loss for India |
| SBI | 3–3.5% export dip |
| Goldman Sachs | India insulated due to lower US export share |
🧭 India’s Global Position
India’s exports to the US = 2.2% of GDP
Compare with:
- Vietnam: 25.1%
- Taiwan: 6.3%
- Thailand: 5.6%
India’s lower export dependence = lower vulnerability
🛠️ Strategic Adjustments Ahead
India plans to:
- Strengthen bilateral trade ties
- Boost pharma & textile exports
- Diversify export markets
- Shield MSMEs & key sectors
🌐 A Fractured Trade Order
Trump’s aim: Revive US manufacturing.
Critics warn: Consumer pain, global instability.
Result:
- A new era of economic nationalism
- Fragile nations left exposed
- India walks the tightrope — cautiously, but steadily
🕊️ A Thought Spark – by IAS Monk
“When tariffs rise like thunder and global ships change course, nations must learn to sail with resolve, not retreat with fear.”
✨ Closing Whisper
“In the echo of dollar clinks and forging steel,
a quieter question remains —
who bears the weight of walls raised high,
and who learns to build bridges still?”
