Growth in the Storm: Asia-Pacific Faces Climate and Economic Crosswinds

🧭 Thematic Focus

Category: Climate Change | Economy | Regional Cooperation
GS Paper: GS Paper III – Environment & Economic Development
Tagline: The region that fuels the world economy must now learn to weather its fiercest storms.

🔍 Key Highlights

📈 Economic Growth in 2024

• Asia-Pacific contributed 60% of global growth
• Slowing trend:
  • Developing countries: 5.5% (pre-COVID) → 4.8% (2024)
  • Least developed nations: 3.7% growth
• Goal 8 at risk: SDG 8 targets 7% GDP growth annually

🌪️ Climate Risks & Economic Vulnerability

• 11 highly exposed countries: Afghanistan, Cambodia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam
• Suffer from:
  • Limited fiscal space
  • Weak institutions
  • Uncoordinated adaptation plans

💸 Average Annual Loss (AAL)

• ESCAP Report Warning:
  • At least 6% GDP loss/year in 1/3rd of countries
  • Region-wide AAL ≈ 4.8% of GDP
• Specific examples:
  • Cambodia: 11% of GDP lost to floods & droughts
  • Fiji, Myanmar, Pakistan: 7%+ losses due to fragile infrastructure
  • Vietnam: Storms & rapid urban growth = high exposure

🧮 Macroeconomic Pressures

• Slower productivity
• High public debt
• Trade tensions
• Fragile recovery complicated by climate uncertainty

🧠 Policy Approaches

• Korea: Industrial growth + green transition
• Kazakhstan: Moving away from fossil fuels
• Laos: Agricultural climate resilience
• Bangladesh: Coastal climate mitigation

💡 Green Industries = Growth Engines

• Transition to high-value green sectors is key
• Need government support for:
  • Green value chains
  • Clean energy innovation
  • Climate-resilient infrastructure

🤝 Regional Solidarity

• Inclusive cooperation required
• Align development needs of diverse economies
• Harness regional capabilities to build shared climate resilience

🧠 Concept Explainer: Why This Matters

Asia-Pacific stands at a critical juncture.
Climate is no longer just an environmental concern—it is an economic disruptor.
How the region responds will decide whether its growth withers or weathers.

🗺️ GS Paper Mapping

• GS Paper III – Climate Change, Sustainable Development
• GS Paper II – International and Regional Cooperation
• Essay Themes – “Storms of Growth,” “Greening the Balance Sheet”

💭 A Thought Spark — by IAS Monk

“Growth, once a sunlit sail,
now flutters in the gale.
And only those who stitch
with foresight and care
shall cross this stormy sea.”