001- Apr 12, 2025
🌊 ENSO NEUTRAL: The Quiet Between Waves
The Stillness in the Sea – ENSO’s Quiet Reset
“Not every calm is peace. Some are pauses between oceanic decisions.”
Theme & Tags:
🌎 Global Climate Systems, Oceanography, Weather Forecasting, Marine Ecology
📘 Category: Environment & Geography | GS Paper 1 & 3
🌬️ Opening Whisper
The ocean’s voice grows still—not because it rests, but because it prepares to turn again.
🌐 Key Highlights
- What Happened?
- As of April 2025, NOAA confirms ENSO-neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific
- Follows the dissipation of a mild La Niña
- Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in Niño-3.4 region = –0.01°C (near-average)
🔁 Understanding ENSO Phases
| Phase | Ocean Temperature | Effects |
|---|---|---|
| El Niño | Warmer SST | Wetter in Americas, drier in Asia |
| La Niña | Cooler SST | Drier in Americas, wetter in Asia |
| Neutral | Near-average SST | Transitional, variable effects |
- ENSO = El Niño–Southern Oscillation
- Affects global weather, marine productivity, monsoons, and climate cycles
🌬️ Atmospheric Dynamics in Neutral Phase
- Air pressure high in central Pacific, low in west
- Leads to east-to-west wind flow
- Supports surface current changes and nutrient upwelling
🐟 Marine Ecosystem Benefits
- Enhanced upwelling near South American coasts
- Brings nutrients to surface, supporting fisheries and biodiversity
- Eastern Pacific sees cooler SST, often linked to drier weather
🔮 Forecasts Ahead
- Neutral likely to persist through Northern Hemisphere summer
- 50%+ chance it extends into autumn
- By early winter 2025:
- Neutral: 43%
- La Niña return: 38%
- El Niño: Low chance (<20%)
📖 Recent La Niña in Retrospect
- Mild and short-lived
- Did not meet NOAA’s 5-period threshold for classification
- May still be included in future climatological averages
📚 GS Mains Mapping
- GS Paper 1
- Climatology & Ocean Currents
- World Geography (Pacific Rim, South America, Indian Monsoon Impact)
- GS Paper 3
- Climate Change & Forecasting Models
- Marine Ecology & Sustainable Fisheries
- Role of International Organizations (e.g., NOAA)
🌏 A Thought Spark — by IAS Monk
Between the storm and its return lies a stillness more informative than thunder—observe it closely.
🌫️ Closing Whisper
The sea does not always roar when it changes—but every silence it gives has weight.
