Posted on 20-11-2025

GLOBAL CARBON EMISSIONS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE

Posted on November 20, 2025
Syllabus: GS3 / Environment & Climate Change

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🌍 Context

The Global Carbon Project (GCP) released new findings during COP30 at Belém, Brazil, warning that global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise despite urgent climate goals.

India, China, the US, and the EU all show positive emission growth for 2025, raising concerns about meeting the 1.5°C warming target under the Paris Agreement.

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🌡 Global Carbon Project (GCP): What is it?

• Established in 2001 under the IGBP, IHDP, WCRP, and Diversitas.
• Now part of Future Earth and a partner of the World Climate Research Programme.
• Purpose:
  • Build high-quality scientific datasets on CO₂, CH₄, N₂O emissions.
  • Track natural sinks (oceans, forests, soils).
  • Inform UNFCCC negotiations by providing real-time estimates of carbon budgets.

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📌 Key Findings of the Latest Report

1️⃣ Global Emissions Continue to Rise

• +1.1% projected increase in 2025
• Total emissions will reach 38 billion tonnes CO₂
• This is despite improved energy efficiency and renewables.

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2️⃣ National-Level Trends

• China: +0.4%
• United States: +1.9%
• European Union: +0.4%
• India: +1.4%

Even though India shows slower growth than 2024, global trends remain concerning.

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3️⃣ Carbon Budget for 1.5°C Nearly Exhausted

• Remaining carbon budget: 170 billion tonnes CO₂
• At current global growth rates, budget will be exhausted before 2030.
• Natural carbon sinks (forests, soils, oceans) are weakening due to warming.

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4️⃣ Reforestation Helps, But Not Enough

• Reforestation offsets only half of the emissions from deforestation.
• Annual global emission growth slowed to 0.3% over the last decade.
• But absolute emissions remain dangerously high.

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🇮🇳 India-Specific Findings

India is the 3rd largest global emitter

• China: 12 billion tonnes
• US: 4.9 billion tonnes
• India: 3.2 billion tonnes

Drivers of India’s 2025 emission trend

• Coal: +0.8%
• Oil: +1%
• Natural gas: +1.3%
• Favourable monsoon + solar/wind expansion reduced growth from 4% (2024) to 1.4%.

But India’s per capita emissions remain low

India continues to emit far below the per capita levels of the West.

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🌱 Why Emissions Keep Rising Globally

• Post-pandemic industrial rebound.
• Increasing energy demand in developing economies.
• Slow transition away from fossil fuels.
• Weak global carbon market mechanisms.
• Aging natural sinks due to heatwaves, forest degradation, and ocean warming.

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🔍 Implications for the World

• More extreme heat events.
• Faster glacier melt and sea-level rise.
• Increased climate migration and food insecurity.
• Higher energy consumption for cooling.
• Intensified risks to biodiversity and ecosystems.

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🧭 Way Forward

According to GCP & Climate Scientists:

• Rapid phase-out of fossil fuels.
• Stronger carbon pricing.
• Long-term investment in negative emission technologies.
• Accelerating renewable energy deployment.
• Enhancing natural sinks via large-scale ecosystem restoration.

India’s Priorities

• Expand green hydrogen.
• Electrify transport.
• Reduce methane in agriculture.
• Strengthen forest carbon stock under CAMPA and Green India Mission.
• Increase rooftop solar and floating solar capacity.

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📘 GS Paper Mapping

• GS3: Environment → Climate Change, Carbon Cycle, Mitigation Strategies
• GS3: Energy → Renewable Energy Transition
• GS2: International Relations → UNFCCC, COP Negotiations
• GS1: Geography → Climate Patterns & Impact

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💬 IAS Monk Whisper

“The icebergs melt quietly, but their silence is a scream. If nations wait for tomorrow, the planet will not.”

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High Quality Mains Essay For Practice : Essay-1

Word Limit 1000-1200

A Warming Planet in a Cooling Conscience: Why Global Carbon Emissions Still Continue to Rise

In the vast theatre of the Earth’s history, human civilisation occupies only a thin sliver of time. Yet within this brief existence, no species has ever altered the planet’s chemistry and climate as profoundly as we have. The Global Carbon Project’s latest findings, released during COP30 in Belém, Brazil, paint a stark picture: global carbon emissions are projected to rise by 1.1% in 2025, reaching an unprecedented 38 billion tonnes. What was supposed to be the decade of decisive climate action is now drifting into a decade of hesitation, political compromises, and scientific alarms that ring louder than ever before.

The data is unambiguous: China’s emissions rise by 0.4%, the United States by 1.9%, and even the European Union, traditionally seen as a climate leader, sees a 0.4% increase. Despite ambitious pledges, the remaining carbon budget to keep warming within 1.5°C—just 170 billion tonnes—will be exhausted before 2030. This warning is not simply atmospheric arithmetic. It signals a profound governance failure, societal inertia, and a global energy system whose transition is too slow to counteract the accelerating impacts of climate change.

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I. Why Are Emissions Rising Despite Global Commitments?

1. Energy Dependence and the Fossil Fuel Lock-In

Most economies continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels for electricity, transport, and industry. Despite renewable energy becoming cheaper than coal in many regions, large-scale infrastructure, trade networks, and political lobbies preserve the status quo.

Countries like China and India still depend on coal to stabilise their grids, while the United States struggles with political divides that obstruct uniform climate policy. The addiction to fossil fuels is not merely technological—it is economic and geopolitical.

2. Consumption Patterns of the Global North

The Global Carbon Project highlights an uncomfortable truth:
10% of the world’s population contributes nearly 50% of emissions.

High-income countries have decarbonised slowly because their lifestyles—sprawling cities, car-centric transport, high energy consumption—are structurally emission-intensive. Even when industrial emissions fall, consumption-based emissions often rise due to imported goods.

3. Developing Countries: Growth vs Climate Responsibility

Emerging economies need energy to fuel development, urbanisation, and economic expansion. While India remains among the lowest per-capita emitters, it still sees a rise due to:

• expanding transportation needs
• industrialisation
• rising oil and gas consumption
• agriculture and fertiliser-related emissions

This puts developing nations in a moral paradox: the world demands they cut emissions, yet their development pathways still depend on energy-intensive growth.

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II. Natural Carbon Sinks Are Weakening

Forests, oceans, and soils absorb nearly half of global CO₂ emissions, but warming temperatures and land degradation are undermining their capacities.

1. Forests Becoming Carbon Sources

Amazonian and Southeast Asian forests have shown signs of reduced carbon absorption due to:

• deforestation
• frequent wildfires
• prolonged droughts

Reforestation efforts offset only half of global deforestation emissions.

2. Oceans Losing Buffer Capacity

Oceans absorb 25–30% of global CO₂ emissions, but acidification and rising temperatures reduce their ability to trap carbon.

3. Soil Degradation

Soils globally have lost nearly 30–70% of their natural carbon stocks over centuries of cultivation. Climate-mediated heat accelerates carbon loss by speeding up microbial decomposition.

Thus, even if countries cut emissions modestly, declining natural sinks worsen the final outcome.

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III. The Carbon Budget Is Closing Fast

The remaining 170 billion tonnes of carbon space for 1.5°C warming sounds large, but at current emission rates, it will be exhausted in less than 5–6 years.

This means:

• Every year of delay increases the cost of future action.
• The world is drifting toward a 2.4°C–2.7°C scenario, far beyond safe thresholds.
• Climate disasters—heatwaves, floods, droughts, and crop failures—will intensify exponentially.

The arithmetic is chilling: we are out of time, yet not out of options.

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IV. India’s Role and Responsibility in a Changing Climate

Despite being the third-largest emitter, India’s per capita emissions are significantly lower than global averages. The country’s projected emission rise of 1.4% in 2025 reflects two dynamics:

1. Clean Energy Expansion

A favourable monsoon and rapid scaling of solar and wind energy have slowed the growth trajectory. India is breaking world records in renewable capacity addition and aims for 500 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030.

2. Persistent Fossil Dependence

Coal still powers over 70% of India’s electricity generation. Transport emissions grow alongside economic expansion, urbanisation, and rising incomes. India cannot abruptly abandon fossil fuels without jeopardising its developmental priorities.

Hence, India’s approach is framed under climate justice—historical responsibility lies with industrialised nations, not developing ones.

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V. Global Climate Politics: A Fractured Consensus

The failure to control emissions stems as much from politics as from technology.

1. The North–South Deadlock

Developing nations seek:

• climate finance
• technology transfer
• fair carbon budgets

But commitments remain vague or unfulfilled. The promise of $100 billion per year remains unmet.

2. Voluntary Climate Commitments Are Insufficient

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement are voluntary. With no penalties for non-compliance, global action depends on political will rather than legal obligation.

3. The Fossil Fuel Lobby

Oil and gas companies continue to influence policy. Some nations even expand fossil exploration, citing economic needs.

This political inertia ensures that emissions reductions remain incremental rather than transformational.

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VI. What Should the World Do?

1. Rapid Decarbonisation of Electricity

Coal must be phased down and renewables scaled up through:

• massive grid upgrades
• energy storage technologies
• international green hydrogen alliances

2. Carbon Pricing and Carbon Border Adjustments

Countries must price emissions transparently to discourage fossil fuel use and pollution-intensive industries.

3. Technology Transfer for the Global South

Without affordable access to clean technologies—solar modules, battery-storage, green hydrogen—developing nations cannot transition equitably.

4. Protecting Natural Carbon Sinks

The world needs a massive investment in:

• forest restoration
• peatland conservation
• ocean protection

5. Behavioural Shifts in Consumption

High-income societies must reduce their carbon footprints through:

• sustainable diets
• energy-efficient housing
• low-emission transport
• reduced material consumption

Climate change is not just an industrial problem; it is a civilisational habit.

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VII. Conclusion: Will the World Choose Courage or Convenience?

Humanity stands at a defining threshold. The Earth has endured five mass extinctions, violent climate shifts, and dramatic geological transformations. But never has the crisis been so intimately linked to the decisions of a single species.

The Global Carbon Project’s warning is not merely scientific—it is moral. It reminds us that climate change is not a distant catastrophe but a present reality, shaping the fate of nations, food systems, oceans, and future generations.

The rising emissions of 2025 show that we are failing the climate test not because solutions are absent, but because collective will is weak. The world must choose between short-term convenience and long-term survival, between political hesitation and ethical responsibility.

In the end, the climate crisis demands courage—the courage to change how we live, how we produce, and how we imagine the future of Earth. For if the planet warms beyond control, civilisation itself may become another chapter in the long geological diary of what was possible, but never chosen.

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High Quality Mains Essay For Practice : Essay-2

Word Limit 1000-1200

Literary Essay — When an Iceberg Becomes a Warning Bell

A Poetic Reflection on the Global Carbon Project Estimates

The iceberg does not speak,
yet the world hears its cry.

A lone blue mountain drifting on a warm, uneasy sea —
that is how the Global Carbon Project imagines our century:
melting at the edges, cracking at the heart,
yet pretending everything is still intact.

Today, when science whispers that
global carbon emissions will rise again — by 1.1% —
to 38 billion tonnes,
it is not merely a statistic.
It is a footstep, echoing in a melting corridor of ice.
A reminder that we are running out of cold places where truth can hide.

The numbers come from the Global Carbon Project,
a consortium of the planet’s finest climate scientists —
and yet their work feels less like a report
and more like a prophecy.

A prophecy that tells us the carbon budget
for keeping the planet under 1.5°C
is about to run out —
the final few coins in the treasury of Earth’s patience
being spent faster than anyone imagined.

The Planet’s Uneven Breathing

China’s emissions inch upward.
America inhales more carbon.
Europe adds its own steady stream.
India — still among the lowest emitters per person —
adds a small rise, softened by a good monsoon
and a young nation’s hunger for energy.

Humanity breathes out carbon
the way a feverish patient breathes through the night —
heavy, uneven, uncontrolled.

And nature…
nature breathes less and less each year.

Forests are no longer the deep chested giants they once were.
Oceans have turned acidic diaries of our excess.
Wetlands shrink into silent postcards from a forgotten world.

The Earth is becoming a tired organism —
its lungs weakening, its temperature rising.

When the Sky Turns into a Ceiling

There is a moment in every home
when smoke gathers under the ceiling
and the air feels thick, tight —
a warning that the fire is too close.

Humanity now lives under such a ceiling.

The atmosphere is filling slowly, imperceptibly,
yet relentlessly —
a slow tide of combustion,
a sky turning heavier by the year.

If the remaining carbon budget is a room,
then the walls are closing in.
And the door — the one that leads to a safer century —
is becoming narrower every day.

India’s Quiet Responsibility

In this rising tide, India stands like a student
who must pass an exam he did not choose to write:
develop fast,
lift millions,
and yet stay gentle with a planet that others have wounded.

India emits less per person
than most developed nations.
Its lifestyle emissions are modest.
Its aspirations are vast.

And yet the nation must walk a tightrope
stretched between growth and planetary duty.

Each year, renewable energy grows,
monsoons shift fortunes,
and coal plants hum louder —
a tension that defines the Indian century.

The Iceberg’s Message

The iceberg on our Tablet Image
is not just a frozen sculpture.
It is a confession.

A confession that
we have turned the planet’s coldest memories
into the world’s hottest anxieties.

It drifts like a messenger
carrying news from the far-away poles
to the warm cities of humans:
“Do not wait until the last glacier becomes a photograph.”

Climate change is not a chapter in a textbook.
It is a diary entry written every day
on riverbanks,
crop fields,
mountain slopes,
and coastal homes.

The Coming Decade — A Narrow Bridge

Before 2030,
the world will use up the last of the 1.5°C budget.
Every tonne of carbon burned now
is a rope pulled from a bridge
we ourselves must walk.

The future will not collapse in one dramatic moment.
It will erode —
like ice melting drop by drop —
until the sea forgets there was ever a mountain of frost.

Unless…
unless humanity remembers that
catastrophe is not destiny.
It is only the consequence of choosing convenience
over conscience.

A Thought Spark — by IAS Monk

The iceberg melts because the world forgot how to be gentle.
The sky warms because the world forgot how to be grateful.
But the future will bloom again
the day humanity remembers that progress is not the opposite of nature —
it is simply the art of living without wounding the world.

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